MANILA, Philippines – The reproduction number of coronavirus disease in the National Capital Region (NCR) has improved in the past few days, the OCTA Research Group said Thursday.
In a report posted on Twitter, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted that NCR’s reproduction number, which refers to the average number of secondary infections by each positive case, eased to 1.28 from Sept. 9 to 15.
This rate is lower than the 1.39 reported during the period covering Sept. 2 to 8.
9.16.21 NCR Reproduction number decreased to 1.28 (with an error margin of up to +0.05). 1-week growth rate decreased to 9%. NCR has not yet peaked but there is hope that it may happen in 1-2 weeks. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @smninews @dwiz882 @News5PH pic.twitter.com/04qQ20S5Jc
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 15, 2021
David also noted that the one-week growth rate of NCR dipped to 9 percent from Sept. 8 to 15, compared to the 14 percent recorded from Sept. 2 to 8.
“Kapag bumaba iyong reproduction number kumakaunti ang hawaan, bumabagal ang hawaan. The growth rate will also decrease like ngayon sa NCR, 1.28 reproduction number growth rate is 9% kapag bumaba ang reproduction number to 1 iyong growth rate naman pababa to 0% then magiging negative,” David said in an interview.
“Kapag negative na ang growth rate ibig sabihin kumakaunti na ang cases natin… In fact, nationally 6% na lang ang nadagdag,” he added.
David also said that the capital region recorded an average of 5,819 cases per day over the past week, while the daily attack rate per 100,000 population climbed to 41.66 from the previous 38.24. It also registered a positivity rate of 25 percent.
He noted that the NCR has not yet peaked but there is hope that it may happen in one or two weeks.
“We might be getting close to the peak nationally… That’s why we have renewed again hope that we might not hit 30,000,” he said.
“Most likely today we’ll see 20,000+ cases […] even up to 21,000 to 22,000 but we hope na it will be controlled in the sense it will not exceed the previous high 25,000-26,000. Maybe the trend will start to decrease,” he added.
David also expressed hope that the country’s health system will be able to take a breather by next month if the downward trend continues.
“Based on the trends that we are seeing, by October I am predicting —hindi ito projection, may kasamang hope and prayer — that by October, downward trend na tayo,” he said.
“Pero iyong hospitalization will still remain high for foreseeable future up to the next few weeks,” he added.
He, however, called on the public to continue adhering to the minimum public health and quarantine protocols to help curb COVID-19 infections.
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