Almost two decades ago, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services or PAGASA conducted a study which found that disease outbreaks can be predicted through weather patterns.
The state weather bureau now believes the government can use the study as basis in mitigating disease outbreaks in various areas across the country especially now that diseases become more common.
“By looking at the weather profile, the changes in the weather variables, you may be able predict when to do mitigation measures or prevention measures. Because in subsequent months, the viruses and bacteria react on that disease,” explained Assistant Weather Service Chief Niño Relos.
PAGASA says the 1998 study reveals that temperature and rainfall may affect the reproduction of viruses and bacteria.
When temperature rises, dengue and malaria cases may also increase in the following months.
“If the temperature increases this month compared to the previous months, the dengue cases is expected to increase after 5 months,” Relos said.
The study also found out that rainfall may also be an indication that viruses will eventually multiply.
“Two months after the rainfall, the development of dengue and malaria virus may start. When the rain start, cholera would also increase after a month,” he added.
The PAGASA says global warming makes viruses stronger.
“It’s the same with virus and bacteria. They are protein molecules. They are smaller molecules of protein that once you subject to intense heat, the orientation of their molecule will change. If the orientation of molecules changes, the changes in characteristics will follow. It’s no longer on its original state,” Relos explained further.
The PAGASA was able to present the study in Germany and Malaysia while they were also invited in Iran in 2011.
The Department of Health has recently confirmed that the Philippines is no longer Zika-free, while it’s neighbor Singapore has already declared a Zika-outbreak after recording more than 200 such cases. — Rey Pelayo | UNTV News & Rescue
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